Battle for Kerala: Left. Cong. Left. Cong?
For a state that has never elected the same government twice, pundits predict a tougher fight this time
According to a pre-poll survey and analysis conducted by the Institute for Monitoring Economic Growth (IMEG) in the 140 constituencies in the state, the UDF may bag 72 to 82 seats in the 140-member Assembly. The LDF may win 58 to 68 seats.
The decent gains made by the Congress-led United Democratic Front in the civic polls just six months ago seem to have been swallowed by the raging storms in New Delhi.
After a really long time, the contest is actually neck-and-neck. And here's why.
In Assam, Tamil Nadu and, after 30 years, even in West Bengal, it is the anti-incumbency wave that looms in the horizon.
But that has not hit Kerala's shores. It has been ousted by 'freebie' politics, a leaf from our neighbour's electoral guidebook.
It all began when the UDF promised a monthly quota of 25 kg of rice at Re 1 to all families below the poverty line (BPL) - a promise to counter the ruling LDF's announcement to extend its Rs 2 per kg rice scheme to all families, not just those the ones BPL.
Sniffing a violation in the model code of conduct, the Election Commission of India (EC) quashed the government's decision. The High Court reversed it, only to be overturned by the Supreme Court which went the EC way.
This Tamil Nadu-styled campaign is what now dominates the electorate debate. The focus has shifted.
Perhaps the shame over a sex scandal and the arrest of a former ally over terror charges have forced both sides to tone down on its Islamist front. Both the Congress and the Left have burnt their fingers in the last few years.
The Congress is unable to face the continuing embarrassment over the Ice-Cream Parlour sex scandal in which its ally, the IUML's (Muslim League) strongman PK Kunhalikutty is named.
In the Left camp, the party now steers clear of the Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP), an ally in the 2009 elections. The decision taken after PDP leader Abdul Nasser Madani's arrest for his role in the Bangalore blasts.
The harping, at the most, seems restricted to the following: the Congress accuses the CPM of wooing the Jamaat-e-Islami now (which has no takers yet) and the Left cries foul over the Muslim League's growing influence.
Unlike previous contests where voters went with the 'lesser evil of the two', the distinction is very blurred now.
Both the Congress and the Left have baggage that weighs them down incredibly. There are no real takers here for any tall claims.
For the UDF, the Centre has been very unkind. With one scam after another opening up a barrage of corruption charges, the scene in New Delhi is pretty sour. The front cannot rely on the 'national image' for a pat on the back.
For the Left, there's an equally long list- mostly on the local front. VS Achuthanandan may have returned as the CPM's flavour of the season but his inability to act on issues as CM because of internal pressures has blemished his record.
His inaction over an outrageous number of sex scandals involving both his own men and opponents and inadept handling of the ever-growing, powerful land mafia in the state leave much to be desired.
Most importantly, his utter helplessness concerning the Lavalin scam which indicts comrade Pinarayi Vijayan- the one thorn in Achuthanandan's foot (no secret that!).
So will the UDF make a cyclic comeback following tradition? Or can the LDF actually manage to clinch a back-to-back term?
Come April 13, when Kerala votes, it is down to the wire.
Source from: MSN News (05/04/2011)
PRATHEESH. K.T.
DUBAI - U.A.E.
